by John Ellis
Last week, the Associated Press released an interview with Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. During the interview Birol, speaking about the effects from Trump’s war on Iran, warns that Europe has “maybe 6 weeks or so of jet fuel left.” He also pointed out the coming food shortages, as well as other consumer goods, that will be caused by supply line issues due to the Strait of Hormuz being blocked. If true, and this is an understatement, that’s a problem.
Claims like Birol’s are hard to navigate, especially from the outside. The agency Birol heads, while an IGO, is technically autonomous. But I don’t know enough about the International Energy Agency to bloviate about its integrity or neutrality. Unsurprisingly, it’s not without its detractors, especially within the Trump administration. While the United States is a founding member, the agency is headquartered in Paris and appears more closely aligned with the EU’s agenda than it is with America. A few months ago, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright threatened to sever ties between the U.S. and the agency. Unfortunately, I’m sure that Fatih Birol being Turkish won’t help his credibility with many Americans, especially MAGA, nor will his connection to the World Economic Forum. There are many competing ideologies and interests coursing through the conservation.
Laying all that out is not intended to discredit Fatih Birol nor call into question his claim. Untangling all those competing ideologies and interests is largely a Sisyphean task and, thankfully, far removed from my objective with this article. However, I do believe that it is important to acknowledge that his warning may be one of realpolitik and contain specific agendas that are more important to Birol than is his frightening, headline grabbing claim. In short, I don’t know if Europe is, in fact, 6 weeks away from running out of jet fuel (4 and a half weeks, at this point). It may very well be; it may not be. Regardless, Fatih Birol’s warning is an important one to hear (and heed) because if his specific warnings aren’t entirely accurate as of today, they will hit close to the mark shortly. I also know that his dire warnings are teetering dangerously close to being true in Asia.
With manufacturing plants forced to close owing to Trump’s war in Iran, millions of Image Bearers are at risk of sliding into poverty and starvation across Southeast Asia. The Philippine President Bongbong Marcos has declared his country under a state of emergency. Importing 98% of its oil from the Middle East means that the Philippines are facing an energy crisis of unprecedented proportion. According to reports, the country has enough crude oil to last until June 30. Inflation in the Philippines is rising sharply, tourism revenue has fallen off a cliff, and several Filipino airlines have suspended or severely reduced services. And that’s an incomplete snapshot of the damage effects caused by Trump’s war in Iran for just one country. If the oppressive plight descending on scores of people throughout Asia isn’t enough to move you, I point you back to Fatih Birol’s warnings regarding Europe. Eventually, sooner rather than later, those of us living in relative comfort in the United States of America are going to have more than high gas prices to worry about. Trump’s war in Iran, possessing no clear purpose nor endgame, is wreaking havoc on the world economy and is the direct cause of the unjust deaths of Image Bearers in Iran (and around the world as the misery and suffering from supply issues spread).
I recently posted on Facebook a picture of a biography of Muhammad Mossadegh that Amazon had just delivered to me. Accompanying the post, I included a long – too long for Facebook but not long enough to convey everything that should be conveyed – history lesson about how the imperialism of Great Britain and the United States have led us to the general instability of the region and, of course, Trump’s war in Iran (Trump’s not the only American president with blood on his hands). I place the lion’s share of the blame for many of the world’s current problems directly at the feet of Western powers, especially the United States of America. My objective with that Facebook post was (and remains) to help chip away at the belief in American exceptionalism and goodness. That’s a hard accusation, I know. For many Americans, maybe even you, possibly an unforgivable one.[1] But unlike Gideon, I prefer knocking over idols in the daylight.
Interestingly, and related, I recently finished reading Unity and Difference In American Life. Published in 1947 by the Institute for Religious and Social Studies, the book is a collection of essays written by sociologists, anthropologists, historians, and theologians. The book’s publication date is important: 1947 sits squarely between 2 of the 20th century’s 3 most impactful events on America.[2] WWII ended in 1945, and President Truman announced on September 23, 1949, that the Soviet Union had successfully detonated an atomic bomb[3], ushering in the Cold War.
In 1947 Americans were optimistically peering into a world future they believed would be shaped, for good or bad, almost exclusively by them. The essays in Unity and Difference In American Life reflect that naïve optimism (naïve with the luxury of hindsight) but with notes of caution. The scholars were aware of the necessity for Americans to unify and all pull in the same direction for the betterment of humanity. Their essays were a mix of Toynbee’s historiography and Boasian anthropology; a desire to be intentional in crafting a national personality that, in turn, would create a good, responsible, and just society that would spread a Pax-Americana around the world – a difficult task that would help protect America’s integrity. A sense of universal responsibility had settled on the United States of America. Even after the existential threat of the Cold War wormed its way into that sense of responsibility, the felt need for Americans to view themselves and their country as good and right remained, indeed intensified. But what if that’s a myth? What if much of the last half of the 20th century’s carnage is our fault?
Look, I want to end this article as quickly as most readers want me to. I definitely don’t want to write 5,000+ words to make my argument. So, leaving aside the many historical sins of the United States of America (you can find a tiny few of them under the tag “The Inconvenient History of the United States” on this blog), I’m going to jump straight to Donald Trump’s immoral war in Iran, a clear, contemporary instance in which the United States is at fault.
The veracity of Birol’s specific claim about Europe’s stock piles of jet fuel aside (and it may very well be true), the grim reality is that billions of image bearers around the globe are staring down a future that contains more oppression, more destitution, more sickness, and more death as a direct result of Donald Trump’s actions. The United States of America, the aggressor in this unprovoked war,[4] is creating a geopolitical situation that will result (is resulting) in unnecessary chaos, suffering, and death. This is a moment in history that is almost cartoonish in its combined wickedness and absurdities. And this is a moment in history in which Americans have a chance to begin historically redeeming ourselves.[5]
I could prognosticate a host of awful possibilities if Donald Trump either doesn’t end his war or those in power don’t remove him from office via the 25th Amendment. I’m sure you could imagine a bevy of realistic (and horrific) actions and events that could be some of the effects extending from Donald Trump’s cause.[6] But I don’t want to do that, and I’m sure you don’t want to do that either. I have three children. Some of the very real possibilities are too frightening to contemplate.[7]
Whether you agree with my historical assessment of the United States of America or not, in this specific moment in time, America is acting as a villain on the world stage. That’s not to say that Iran is the good guy, because they’re not; history rarely operates with that clean of a binary. But the destruction of the world’s economy and the accompanying suffering and deaths is Donald Trump’s fault, and, by covenantal extension, the fault of the country over which he presides as president. History will place the blame on me and on you if we remain silent. And history will be correct. We’ll not only have to answer to history, though, we will also be called to account before King Jesus for the suffering and deaths that are accruing across the globe because of Donald Trump’s war in Iran if we remain silent and passive.
So, say something. Do something. Don’t allow Donald Trump to speak for you. Don’t allow Donald Trump to act in your name. Find an anti-war/Trump protest to attend. Write emails to political leaders and media outlets. Overwhelm congressional offices with phone calls (for those who live in Florida’s 7th district like me, Congressman Corey Mill’s office number in DC is 202-225-4035, the number for his Lake Mary office is 407-638-7900, and the number for his Port Orange office is 386-238-9711)[8]. Make sure those around you know where you stand; in doing so, you may embolden others to raise their voice in defiance of Donald Trump, too. That, in turn, may elevate our collective voice to such a pitch that Washington, D.C., cannot ignore us. Not to mention that it would testify to a watching world that Donald Trump does not reflect who we are. Most importantly, there are two interrelated objectives: the possibility to move the political needle and spare Image Bearers from more suffering and our ability to be faithful witnesses to the Resurrection.
When God commanded the exiled Israelites to pray and work for the well-being of Babylon, he didn’t intend for them to implicate themselves in Babylon’s wickedness. Part of praying and working for the well-being of whichever Babylon God’s people have been exiled includes denunciations of sin and calling for repentance. In this critical historical moment, God’s people in the United States of America should raise our voices in condemnation of Donald Trump and his war in Iran.
[1] The Puritans of the Massachusetts Bay Colony, under the “esteemed” John Winthrop, executed Quakers for simply being Quakers (to go along with their other atrocities). Did you know that? Is that part of the rubric you’ve used to create what you believe this country’s heritage is? And that’s just a tiny drop in the bucket of evil committed during the building of this country and in the name of this country.
[2] The third being the Great Depression.
[3] Not incidentally, that was two days before the start of Billy Graham’s first Los Angeles crusade, the crusade that propelled him to fame. Truman’s announcement featured heavily in Graham’s sermons.
[4] Without question, Donald Trump’s decision to invade Iran is a violation of the Just War Theory. Preemptive invasions do not qualify (and it’s unclear the validity of even that claim). It’s the same reason we don’t punish people for the crimes we believe they’re going to commit.
[5] More importantly for me, it’s a moment for God’s people to renounce their claims on power, comfort, and prestige, and take a stand in ways that will burnish our witness to the Resurrection. I’m still working through the praxis/ethics of my personal political theology, but I believe this is a moment in time that demands political action. Raising our voices in protest while calling for those in power to remove Donald Trump via the 25th Amendment is a good and right thing for Christians to do in this moment, I believe.
[6] In a recent video, Canadian PM Mark Carney talked about how Canada’s long-standing economic ties to the U.S. are now a liability. Commenting beyond Trump’s war in Iran, of course, Carney focused on a string of Trumpian blunders, including the tariffs. My point is that if things continue, America’s allies are going to become avowed enemies of this country. Trump’s actions, including his war in Iran, pose an existential threat to Western Europe, Great Britain, and Canada. At some point, those countries are going to be faced with the very real problem about their need to stop Trump, raising the question of using force if necessary (see footnote 6).
[7] Here’s one to contemplate: what if – a big if, I grant you, but not out of the realm of possibility – Europe decides that the coming economic crisis caused by Donald Trump’s immoral actions casts the US as the largest threat to world peace and stability? What then? Do they ally with Russia, China, and the rest of the world to neutralize that threat? Again, I doubt that’s what will happen because down that road lies the end of human’s ability to live on this planet. But its possibility paints a clearer picture of who the baddest of the bad guys are in our current geopolitical shitshow.
[8] Not that there’s any hope that Cory Mills, of all immoral people, will do the right thing.
Practically Known Theology 